Research note
Research note: ASML says AI demand means its 2027 and 2028 supply will fall short, after record €11.7 billion quarter
How we checked ASML’s third-quarter 2026 results, its outlook and the China figures.
What we set out to check
ASML’s third-quarter numbers, its guidance, what it said about AI demand and capacity, and the China figures.
What we found
- The press release gives €11,662 million sales, €4,960 million net income and a 57.5% gross margin.
- It gives Q4 guidance of €14.2–15.2 billion and 2026 guidance of €44–45 billion.
- It says 2027 and 2028 supply will not fully meet demand.
- The China figures were not in the part of the release we read; they come from the SCMP.
Numbers that differ
None. We round €11,662 million to €11.7 billion and €4,960 million to €5.0 billion.
Labels we chose and why
- Confirmed for results and guidance, from ASML.
- Unconfirmed for the China share, seen only in the SCMP report.
What we could not verify
- The China figures in ASML’s own materials.
- Whether ASML’s share price moved on the results.
What we searched
- ASML Q3 2026 results
- ASML capacity 2028 AI demand
- ASML China sales Q3 2026
Every source we read
| Source | Used? | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ASML press release (SEC 6-K) | USED | Primary source for results, guidance, capacity and the CEO quote. |
| South China Morning Post | USED | China growth and share figures. |
| Investing.com | USED | Second report matching results; gives Q2 comparison figures. |
| AI Weekly | NOT USED | Summary of the SCMP report. |